Falling home prices in the capitals? Regional SA tells a different story

Lately the question I hear most from clients is: “Should I be worried about house prices?”

Fair question. The headlines say home values have now fallen for six months in a row. Cotality’s latest figures show national values down 1.1% in September and 5.2% below their March peak. Around 97% of capital city suburbs have gone backwards over the past three months.

But here’s the thing: that’s not the whole story. And it’s definitely not the one I’m seeing in regional South Australia.

Regional markets are holding their ground

Over the past year, regional home values across Australia rose 5.6%, while the combined capitals fell 1.8%. Sydney (down 7.0%) and Melbourne (down 6.2%) are doing most of the heavy lifting on the way down.

Regional SA? Up 10.7% for the year. Here in Port Augusta, the median house price is sitting around $340,000, and buyers are snapping homes up faster than they have in years. Vendors are giving away less on price too: the typical discount off the asking price has shrunk from around 8% in 2021 to under 2.5% today.

Adelaide hasn’t escaped the slowdown. Like the other mid-sized capitals, it fell more than 1% in September (down 1.3%, and 2.7% over the quarter). Even so, it’s still up 6.5% on a year ago. So if you’re in the regions, or even in Adelaide’s north, the national headlines may not match what’s happening in your street.

So what’s really behind the headlines? My take

“A national average is a blunt instrument.”

Here’s what I think is going on underneath it.

1. The markets that ran hardest are correcting hardest. Suburbs where prices got pushed to eye-watering levels are coming back to earth, and they’re dragging the averages down with them. Sydney houses are down 8.2% for the year and Melbourne houses 7.3%, well ahead of units in both cities.
2. Solid, sensibly priced suburbs are holding firm. Real demand from people who actually want to live somewhere doesn’t disappear because of a headline.
3. Investors are chasing yield. Proposed changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing from the May 2026 Federal Budget have already cut investor demand, according to Cotality. The investors still buying are looking for rental return, and that points them to the regions. In Port Augusta, rental yields are sitting around 5.7%.

The real change is time, not just price

What stands out to me is how long homes are taking to sell. In the capitals, the median time to sell is now 39 days, up from 23 days a year ago. Sales are down about 19% on last year.

Back in 2021, a typical Port Augusta house sat on the market for more than 110 days. Today it’s around 36, quicker than the capital-city average. Even Elizabeth Downs, in Adelaide’s north, is holding steady at under 30 days.

For buyers in the capitals, slower sales are an opportunity: more choice, less competition and more room to negotiate. The catch? Higher rates and living costs have trimmed how much many people can borrow. And in the regions, the window may be narrower than the headlines suggest.

My advice right now

If you bought or refinanced in the last two or three years, now is a great time to review your loan. Values have moved, rates have moved, and the deal you signed up for may not be the best one on the table anymore. A sharper rate or a better loan structure can make a real difference while living costs stay high.

And if you’ve been quietly wondering whether you could buy, let’s find out. A softer market only helps if you know exactly where you stand.

Free and no obligationBook a loan review with Sharene→

Sources: Cotality Home Value Index, October 2026 release (September results); Cotality suburb reports for Port Augusta SA 5700 and Elizabeth Downs SA 5113, prepared 24 October 2026; realestate.com.au Port Augusta suburb profile; Baker McKenzie, Budget Bites: CGT discount and negative gearing (May 2026).

This article is general information only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Please seek personalised advice before making any financial decision. Total Home Loan Options is a trading name of iLoad Loans Pty Ltd, Australian Credit Licence 517191.